Page 3 - Weekly highlights 6232

III

Weekly highlights

BAM’s forecasts bother the government

n The Central Bank is being
criticized for using two months’

worth of figures to judge a
whole year

n March rainfall reverse the

trend, even for cereals

n The rise in inflation is indica-

tive of a certain trend
A bdellatif Jouahri’s latest sta-

tements have displeased the
Akhannouch government.
Indeed, a week after his press confe-
rence, the forecasts of the Governor of
the Central Bank (Bank Al-Maghrib,
BAM) have shaken the Government
who was feeling comfortable without
making an effort to communicate with
the public opinion. This lack of com- The Governor of Bank Al Maghrib specified that his forecasts did not take into account the last rainfall and the spring crops. If these are taken into account, Morocco could post a
growth rate of about 2%. Especially since the Government warns that the agricultural campaign may not be judged before the end of March. It is from the beginning of April that it
munication from the executive branch will be possible to give an overview of the agricultural campaign
is doing a disservice to the Govern- until after the end of March. It is after has an immediate impact on crops that can High Commissioner´s Office for
ment, so much so that when the central the beginning of April that it is possible have not yet been destroyed such as ce- Planning (HCP) are part of a positive
bank speaks, its voice is heard while to give an overview of the agricultural reals. The Minister said that one million direction. Most indicators from the sec-
the Government is not audible. This is campaign. In any case, the Bank Al- hectares of cereals could experience an tors of construction, industry, energy,
due to the vacuum in the political com- Maghrib statement is a quarterly exer- extremely important catch up. The ove- export, from OCP, and other sources,
munication of the executive branch of cise, made on the basis of two months. rall impact on the vegetation cover, par- are positive. «It is therefore difficult to
Government. Limiting oneself to a At the next meeting, the Governor of ticularly on the rangelands, is significant. say that all this is worthless», notes a
weekly press briefing by the govern- the Central Bank will make the neces- This will greatly alleviate the pressure source familiar with the matter. The
ment spokesperson to bridge the com- sary revisions. on livestock, on farmers, as well as on same source puts the forecasts into
munication gap is a shortsighted stra- the dairy and meat production, said the perspective by talking about «the
tegy. Never mind: the central bank is • The impact of the March rainfall: Minister of Agriculture. orthodoxy of the central bank, of the
counting on a growth rate of 0.7% for The Minister of Agriculture, on the side- precautionary principle indirectly in-
this year, before rising to 4.6% in 2023. lines of a meeting concerning the spring • Good performance of the non-agri- tended to force the Government to act
However, the Government had hoped crop program, came forward. Indeed, cultural activities: The non-agricultu- and revitalize the economy».
for a growth rate of 3.2% in 2022. according to Mohamed Sadiki, the rain- ral activities identified by the economic
With the rainfall deficit that has been fall recorded during the month of March bulletin and the letter of the Moroc- • Taking a two-month period as a
recorded, to the point that dams are at basis to judge the whole year? Offi-
their lowest, the agricultural campaign The inflation peak cials at the Ministry of Economy and
should mark a clear decline in cereal Finance recall that the central bank is
production to stabilize at 25 million The forecasts of the Moroccan Cen- The rise in inflation is explained just playing its role, but deciding the
quintals versus nearly 103 million in tral Bank are considered pessimis- by several factors, particularly fate of the whole year on the basis of the
2021. Here again, the Appropriations tic. The inflation rate is estimated at the surge in international prices figures for two months, January and
Bill had based its assumptions for this 4.7% while the assumptions of the of raw materials and energy pro- February, is another matter. To drive
year on a cereal harvest of 80 million draft Appropriations Bill for 2022 ducts. This has had an impact on the point home even more, the officials
quintals. The agricultural value added had reduced such a rate to 1.2%. An the assumptions of the current of the Ministry point out that no one
should thus drop by 19.8%, leading to official said that the increase in the Appropriations Bill. The price of knows how the conflict in Ukraine
a meager growth of 0.7% this year ver- inflation rate is indicative of a cer- a barrel of oil has risen, impacting will evolve. Indeed, most international
sus 7.3% in 2021. It must be recognized tain trend, especially since the peak the lives of households given the institutions do not venture to suggest
that the Governor of Bank Al-Maghrib of inflation is recorded now and not fact that the transport of goods is concrete figures. They do not know
has specified that his forecasts have not within 3 or 6 months. As a result, the influenced by the price of diesel what tomorrow will be made of. It is
taken into account the latest rainfall year will not end with an inflation oil, which has been rising steadily possible that the conflict will be over in
and spring crops. If these are taken into rate of 4.7% because that means that in recent weeks. Fortunately, the April-May or degenerate into a world
account, Morocco could post a growth during the next quarter, the rate will Government has intervened with war, with its procession of destruction,
rate of about 2%, said a source familiar be 6 or 7%. One cannot therefore say a subsidy to prevent transporters displacements, and suffering for the
with the matter. Especially since the that the peak is coming, especially from passing on these increases populations, with hunger looming over
Government reminds us that the agri- since the oil prices have stabilized to end consumers.o them. o
cultural campaign may not be judged around 100 dollars a barrel. Mohamed CHAOUI
Friday 1st April 2022